Seven parties would enter the new parliament if elections were held today, according to a Gallup International poll commissioned by Bulgaria’s National Radio.
As the results show, voter turnout ranges from 2.6 to 2.9 million people. So far, the turnout of those who say they will vote based on real voters in the country is 50%; however, according to the official list, it is expected to be significantly lower, approximately 40%. It should be noted that turnout forecasts are extremely difficult and serious fluctuations outside these limits are not ruled out. At least one voter is expected to say “I do not support anyone.”
With only seven days left in the campaign, if the elections were to take place today, the votes of the parties, coalitions and candidates would be distributed as follows:
The GERB-UDF coalition would receive 28.2% of the vote, while 20.8% would vote for BSP, with these formations leading the race.
12.9% are expected to vote for the “There are such people” party and 12.7% for the MRF. At this stage, it is almost impossible to determine which of the two parties will reach third place, as it all comes down to the different types of mobilization on both sides.
“Democratic Bulgaria” with 6.1%, the civil platform “Stand Up.BG” with 5.2% and VMRO with 4.4% are walking to the toes, not far from the possible advantage. The chances for these formations depend entirely on the last days, even the hours.
These are the seven formations that would make it to Parliament if elections were held today.
However, the last days and hours can make a difference. For example, the Volia-NFSB coalition has 3% and hopes to cross the threshold and enter Parliament. “Renaissance” is at 1.6%, ABV at 1.4%, the formation of Tsvetan Tsvetanov at 1.3%, “Ataka” is at 0.6%, while 1.8% are likely to vote for other parties.
The poll, conducted for Bulgarian National Radio during the period March 24-31, included 1,013 adult Bulgarians and shows the structure of electoral behavior.