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Bulgaria: Recent Gallup Survey Shows GERB-UDF Leads 25.8% vs. 21.9% of BSP

There are seven constituencies that will enter the Bulgarian Parliament, according to a poll by the independent Gallup International Balkans monthly program, conducted among 1,011 adults with personal interviews with Bulgarians from February 4-12.

According to the poll, if the elections were held today, seven formations would win parliamentary representation, for two of which the election campaign was being considered crucial. There are still some coalitions hoping to approach or even cross the entry threshold, especially if turnout is low or to fight for the subsidy.

Thus, according to the poll, 25.8% of those who say they will vote and have decided for whom, will vote for GERB and UDF, making this the first choice for voters.

The Socialist Party (BSP) is in second place with 21.9%. The political formation “There is such a people” gets 13.1%, with MRF close behind with 12.4%. “Democratic Bulgaria” gets 6.8%, the formation around Maya Manolova 4.7% and VMRO 4.2%.

For the last two coalitions, the election campaign will be crucial to their chances of participating in the National Assembly. The Volia-NFSB coalition may also have such chances. The overall score of the clear reports of both parties is 2.7% as a probability of votes, but it remains to be seen whether the merger of the two parties will yield a bonus or vice versa, something that could not be analyzed, as mentioned by Gallup.

The “Resurrection” political formation enters the election campaign with more than one percent, while formations such as ABV, Ataka and the Democrats for Bulgaria are also close to one percent. In all these parties and coalitions, the campaign will be decisive and surprises are not ruled out. There are some other formations that record percentages below 1%.

Of course, the data is a picture of the moment and not a prediction of the election result. The hardest thing to predict is participation, as Gallup explains.

Figures in mid-February estimate that about 2.9 million people would vote if the election were held now. According to the preliminary list of conditional voters, this is about 43%. This is the lowest turnout in recent elections, but again the traditional ambiguity regarding voter lists should be noted.

In the rest of the study, both institutions managed to overcome the damage of their image by summer and autumn. However, confidence levels in the Cabinet and the National Assembly are among the lowest in a decade, with confidence levels in recent months recording percentages similar to those of the Oresharski government’s last term, according to a Gallup International Balkan study.

During this period, trust in the military rose to its highest level in decades with 54% confidence and 28% distrust, earlier this year. Respectively, the Police registers an increase in the trust of the citizens, as the traditional percentage of distrust in recent years, which was at the level of 40-50%, in the last month increased respectively to 54-36%.

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